Unlike in recent months, when gains were led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), sales in the GTA were down slightly in August; however, this was more than offset by higher sales in Montreal, Greater Vancouver, and Ottawa.

“Activity has continued to gradually pick up steam over the last five months, but the experience from a year ago suggests that trend could accelerate this fall,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Part of what drives sales at different points in the year is the availability of a lot of fresh property listings for buyers to buy. For the fall market, that always happens right at the beginning of September, and this year was no exception. If last year is any kind of guide, then there is the potential that sales could really pick up in the next month or so depending on how many buyers are drawn off the sidelines, particularly if we see a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada.”

“August continued the trend of rising sales in many markets across the country, and while momentum slowed compared to July, much of that is simply a reflection of the time of year,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Now that we are on the other side of Labour Day, new listings are flooding onto the market.”

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2025, the lowest level since January. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was again almost unchanged (-0.1%) between July and August 2025. Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has been mostly stable since April, when the market bottomed.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to August 2024. Based on the extent to which prices fell off beginning in the fall of 2024, look for year-over-year declines to continue to shrink in the months ahead.

Homebuyers are responding to improving fundamentals in the Canadian housing market. Supply has risen as new listings surged until May of this year. Additionally, the benchmark price was $664,078, which is more than 4% lower than it was a year earlier. That decrease was smaller than in June, and the board expects year-over-year declines to continue shrinking, it stated in a press release.

The view is nearly unanimous that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will cut the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points when they meet again this Wednesday, September 17. The Canadian CPI for August will be released tomorrow, and if inflation is relatively stable or down, the Bank could continue to lower rates in October and December as well. This could be what it takes to move potential buyers off the sidelines.

While trade uncertainty is likely to persist, we can expect to see accelerated housing activity during the fall selling season, which is contrary to standard seasonal patterns.